Heiko Miertzsch Ludwig

Posted by Yusuf on March 18th, 2019 — Posted in News

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The predicted result is very close to reality. The average absolute deviation is only 1.4 percentage points. Swarm intelligence is obviously an effective means of predicting election outputs at the municipal level”, so Oliver Bracht, statistics expert and Managing Director of eoda. The majority of individual mentions cropped worse, only 5% of the individual tips were closer to the actual outcome as the tip of the ground.” The barriers to a good estimate are seemingly low explanation of election bet, because representativeness is not assumed. Here are special feature and advantage of an election bet. Although also election betting benefit from the diversity of players, participants must be no image of the electorate. A few conditions for a functioning are however yet take into account. These include, for example, diversity of opinion and the independence of the participants.

After these impressive results, we will work out the success factors and examine the methodological approach of swarm intelligence for other forecast tasks”, sums up the result Bracht. The company which took over statistical processing including analysis and quality assurance of the results eoda, a consultancy that specialises in sophisticated analysis and visualization of data. The scientific monitoring of the project is the University of Kassel as a cooperation partner of eoda. In the framework of the project, a thesis will emerge, which examines scientifically the success factors for the application of the method for local elections. The media implementation of interactive election bet was carried out in terms of design and technology by bronze soft media architects, a multimedia systems integrator with orientation of the portfolio on the areas of design, media and information technology (IT).

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